The Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies on Sino–US Aquatic Product Trade
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70088/433a3x78Keywords:
Aquatic Product Trade, Tariff Policies, Export TradeAbstract
Background/Objectives: This study analyzes China’s aquatic product imports and exports during Donald Trump’s presidency (2017–2021) to evaluate the net effects of U.S. tariff measures. Methods: Using trade between China and the United States as the treatment group and China’s trade with major partners as the control group, the study applies an event study framework to isolate policy impacts. Conclusions: The findings indicate that U.S. tariff policies exerted a significant suppres-sive effect on China’s aquatic product trade, particularly with developed economies. Event-study parallel trend tests, robustness checks, and placebo tests consistently confirm the reliability of the findings. Mechanism analysis reveals that import volume fully mediates the impact of tariffs, while export and total trade volumes serve as partial mediators. The study concludes with policy recommendations to help China mitigate the adverse effects of U.S. tariff measures and promote stable, long-term development of its aquatic product trade.References
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