The COVID-19 Shock and Its Impact on Vietnam's Trade Flows: A Sectoral Data Approach

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic's multifaceted impact on Vietnam's trade flows across key economic sectors by utilizing detailed sectoral data spanning from 2018 to 2023. Through an extensive examination of export and import volumes, value fluctuations, and sector-specific recovery trajectories, the study reveals significant heterogeneity in how different industries have been affected by the crisis. The data sources include official statistics from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, detailed reports from the World Trade Organization (WTO), and specialized trade bulletins pertinent to individual sectors. Findings indicate that while the electronics and medical supplies industries experienced sharp initial disruptions due to supply chain interruptions and sudden shifts in demand, they subsequently demonstrated robust recovery propelled by accelerated digitalization, increased global health expenditure, and strategic government support measures. Conversely, sectors such as textiles, tourism-related goods, and agricultural exports suffered prolonged declines attributed to persistent global demand shocks, logistical bottlenecks, and fluctuating trade policies. The study identifies key drivers behind these divergent trends, including supply chain fragmentation, changing international market dynamics, and targeted policy interventions like trade restrictions and fiscal stimulus packages. Concluding, the paper offers nuanced policy recommendations aimed at strengthening Vietnam's trade resilience, emphasizing the critical importance of supply chain diversification, adoption of digital trade facilitation technologies, enhanced trade infrastructure, and proactive engagement in multilateral trade agreements to better withstand future global disruptions.