Trends and Determinants of Vietnam's Trade Balance: Evidence from Import-Export Data

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive and data-driven examination of the trends, structural shifts, and underlying determinants that have shaped Vietnam's trade balance from 2010 to 2023. Drawing on official import–export statistics, the research first outlines the historical trajectory of Vietnam's trade performance, documenting its transition from a prolonged phase of trade deficit to a consistent trade surplus in recent years. This transition is analyzed in the context of global and regional economic developments, changes in Vietnam's industrial composition, and the country's integration into diversified trade networks. Beyond descriptive trend analysis, the study employs quantitative and comparative approaches to examine how multiple macroeconomic and structural factors—such as GDP growth patterns, exchange rate fluctuations, shifts in industrial capacity, commodity price volatility, and targeted trade policy reforms—interact to influence the balance of trade. Sector-level breakdowns reveal that manufacturing, agriculture, and high-value-added processing industries contribute unevenly to trade surpluses, while certain resource-dependent sectors remain susceptible to external market shocks. The findings underscore the interconnected nature of economic variables: growth-driven import demand, export competitiveness, and policy interventions collectively shape the trajectory of the trade balance. This integrated perspective enables a nuanced understanding of the trade environment, offering evidence-based insights for policymakers, business leaders, and academic researchers. The study concludes by highlighting strategic priorities for maintaining Vietnam's trade surplus, including diversification of export markets, promotion of value-added industries, and the adoption of adaptive trade policies to ensure sustainable and resilient economic growth in the face of global uncertainties.