"To IPO or Not to IPO" - Recent 2025 IPOs and AI Valuation Framework

Abstract

The IPO market in 2025 has witnessed a selective rebound following the prolonged underperformance of the 2021 cohort. This paper examines the valuation dynamics and market reception of recent IPOs, with a focus on SaaS and technology companies, and compares them to the 2021 experience. Through case studies of firms that chose to go public, such as Figma and Coreweave, as well as companies that remained private, including Databricks and Stripe, and those that underperformed, like Chime, the study identifies key factors influencing public market outcomes. Findings indicate that investor preferences have shifted from growth-at-all-costs to sustainable, margin-aware, and AI-leveraged growth. The paper also proposes categorization of AI tickers, and introduces Revenue Weighted Metric (RWM), to better represent relationship between growth, profitability and 2025 public market valuations. The paper concludes with implications for founders and investors regarding IPO timing, strategic positioning, and a new AI valuation playbook in face of public market reactions to AI value creation in 2025.