China–US Relations, Global Supply Chain Restructuring, and an Emerging International Financial Order: Resource Allocation in Emerging Technologies, Agricultural Products, and Logistics

Abstract

Changes in China–US relations have intensified debate over whether international production and finance are separating into rival systems. This article develops an integrative review of research and official evidence, focusing on emerging technologies, agricultural products, and logistics during the period from 2018 to 2025. It compares the mechanisms through which political restrictions alter access, prices, production locations, transport capacity, and financing requirements. Semiconductor controls target access to technological capabilities; soybean trade illustrates substitution among suppliers subject to seasonal, infrastructural, and environmental limits; maritime disruptions show how route changes absorb transport capacity and may extend cash-conversion cycles, depending on payment terms. The synthesis distinguishes direct bilateral trade from upstream dependence and separates currency invoicing, payment arrangements, credit provision, and reserve holdings. It argues that physical reallocation can proceed without equivalent financial decentralization because established funding and hedging networks remain valuable to firms operating across new production locations. Financial adaptation may therefore take the form of greater hedging and selective currency diversification alongside continued use of dominant intermediaries. The article proposes an analytical framework linking sectoral substitution constraints to balance-sheet exposure, proposes criteria for assessing whether diversification improves resilience, and outlines an empirical research agenda. Its contribution is a conditional account of an emerging financial order: more contested and differentiated, but not demonstrably replaced by a coherent alternative system.